{"id":18509,"date":"2024-04-02T20:44:50","date_gmt":"2024-04-02T20:44:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/soicauchinhxacnhat.com\/?p=18509"},"modified":"2024-04-02T20:44:50","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T20:44:50","slug":"cach-tinh-xac-suat-de-du-doan-lo-de-chinh-xac-nhat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/soicauchinhxacnhat.com\/cach-tinh-xac-suat-de-du-doan-lo-de-chinh-xac-nhat\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t"},"content":{"rendered":"
B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1eafc m\u1eafc kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ea1n tr\u00fang s\u1ed1 m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n ch\u01a1i kh\u00f4ng? Bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMB chu\u1ea9n x\u00e1c h\u01a1n. C\u00f9ng t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u ngay t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang th\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n b\u1ea1n ch\u01a1i m\u00e0 xsmb soi c\u1ea7u<\/strong> ch\u00fang t\u00f4i vi\u1ebft d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y nh\u00e9:<\/p>\n 1 \u2013 (X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1ch s\u1ed1 l\u00f4) = 1 \u2013 0,99^27 ( 27 l\u1ea7n quay s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ea1ch) =23,7657%<\/p>\n \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea1n tr\u00fang s\u1ed1 l\u00f4 b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 tr\u00fang bao nhi\u00eau con.<\/p>\n D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMB th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 hai con = 0,98^27 = 57,957%.<\/p>\n Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t con trong c\u1eb7p xi\u00ean v\u1ec1 con th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c con th\u1ee9 2 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t:<\/p>\n V\u1ec1 1 con = 2 * x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00fang 1 l\u00f4 * x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang s\u1ed1 l\u00f4 = 2 * 23,7657% * 0,99^27 =36,238%.<\/p>\n X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang xi\u00ean 2 = X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 2 s\u1ed1 + x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 1 s\u1ed1 = 57,957% + 36,238% = 94,195%.<\/p>\n X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2<\/strong> = 100% \u2013 X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang xi\u00ean 2= 100 \u2013 94,195% = 5,8%<\/p>\n T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh theo xi\u00ean 2 tr\u00ean nh\u01b0ng x\u1ea3y ra nhi\u1ec1u t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng h\u01a1n. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3:<\/p>\n X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang xi\u00ean 3 = X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 3 con + x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 1 con + x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 2 con = 0,97^27 + 3 * 23,7675% * 0,98^27 + 3 * 5,8% * 0,99^27 = 98,527%<\/p>\n T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 3<\/strong> = 100% \u2013 98,527% = 1,473%<\/p>\n Qua nh\u1eefng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 b\u00ean tr\u00ean, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 d\u1ec5. B\u1edfi v\u1eady b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng kinh nghi\u1ec7m, k\u0129 n\u0103ng soi c\u1ea7u l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n B\u1ea1n s\u1ebd nu\u00f4i s\u1ed1 l\u00f4 trong kho\u1ea3ng n ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u01b0\u1edfng. V\u1eady sau bao l\u00e2u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00fang s\u1ed1?<\/p>\n B\u00e0i to\u00e1n n\u00e0y c\u1ea7n ng\u01b0\u1eddi am hi\u1ec3u t\u00ednh to\u00e1n x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn m\u1edbi hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMB t\u00ednh to\u00e1n nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n G\u1ecdi A l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 trong n ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang l\u1ea7n n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n B l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 tr\u00fang gi\u1ea3i \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 1 l\u1ea7n trong n ng\u00e0y<\/p>\n X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 27 s\u1ed1 l\u00f4 trong m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y l\u00e0: 0,99^27. Do \u0111\u00f3:<\/p>\n P(A) = 0,99^27n<\/p>\n P(B) = 1\u2212P(A) = 1\u22120,99^27n<\/p>\n P(B) > m \u21d4 0,99^27n < 1\u2212m \u21d4 n > log0,99(1\u2212m)\/27<\/p>\n V\u1edbi m l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ea7n tr\u00fang th\u01b0\u1edfng (0,9999)<\/p>\n T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c > 33,9 hay ch\u01a1i kho\u1ea3ng 34 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u00f4, ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd tr\u00fang th\u01b0\u1edfng \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 1 l\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n N\u1ebfu l\u00e0m theo v\u1eady s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t m\u1ea5t th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1c. B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tham kh\u1ea3o nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao nh\u1ea5t ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cung c\u1ea5p. \u0110\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o th\u1eddi gian b\u1ea1n tr\u00fang l\u1edbn s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1eafc m\u1eafc kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ea1n tr\u00fang s\u1ed1 m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n ch\u01a1i kh\u00f4ng? Bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMB chu\u1ea9n x\u00e1c h\u01a1n.… Continue reading “C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t”<\/span> <\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[611,612],"tags":[121,122,123,69,244],"yoast_head":"\nD\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMB x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang th\u01b0\u1edfng<\/h3>\n
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Thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n nu\u00f4i s\u1ed1 l\u00f4<\/h3>\n
\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0CH\u1ed0T S\u1ed0 SI\u00caU VIP<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n
XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U B\u1ea0CH TH\u1ee6 L\u00d4 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY\r\n<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U B\u1ea0CH TH\u1ee6 L\u00d4 2 NH\u00c1Y CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U SONG TH\u1ee6 L\u00d4 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U B\u1ea0CH TH\u1ee6 L\u00d4 K\u00c9P CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U SONG TH\u1ee6 L\u00d4 K\u00c9P CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U B\u1ea0CH TH\u1ee6 \u0110\u1ec0 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U SONG TH\u1ee6 \u0110\u1ec0 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U D\u00c0N \u0110\u1ec0 4 S\u1ed0 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U D\u00c0N \u0110\u1ec0 6 S\u1ed0 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U D\u00c0N \u0110\u1ec0 8 S\u1ed0 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U D\u00c0N \u0110\u1ec0 10 S\u1ed0 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U D\u00c0N L\u00d4 4 S\u1ed0 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n XSMB SOI C\u1ea6U D\u00c0N L\u00d4 6 S\u1ed0 CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/pre>\n<\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0CH\u1ed0T S\u1ed0 MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
D\u00c0N L\u00d4 8 S\u1ed0 MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC SOI C\u1ea6U CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n D\u00c0N L\u00d4 XI\u00caN 2 MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC SOI C\u1ea6U CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n D\u00c0N L\u00d4 XI\u00caN 3 MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC SOI C\u1ea6U CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n D\u00c0N L\u00d4 XI\u00caN 4 MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC SOI C\u1ea6U CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n 3 C\u00c0NG MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC SOI C\u1ea6U CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n D\u00c0N 3 C\u00c0NG 2 S\u1ed0 MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC SOI C\u1ea6U CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n D\u00c0N L\u00d4 10 S\u1ed0 MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC SOI C\u1ea6U CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n \u0110\u1ec0 \u0110\u1ea6U \u0110U\u00d4I MI\u1ec0N B\u1eaeC SOI C\u1ea6U CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/pre>\n<\/div>\n
\u00a0CH\u1ed0T S\u1ed0 MI\u1ec0N NAM<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
X\u1ec9u Ch\u1ee7 MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n GI\u1ea2I \u0110\u1eb6C BI\u1ec6T MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n GI\u1ea2I 8 MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n BAO L\u00d4 MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n C\u1eb7p X\u1ec9u Ch\u1ee7 MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n SONG TH\u1ee6 L\u00d4 MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n \u0110\u1ea6U \u0110U\u00d4I GI\u1ea2I 8 MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n \u0110\u1ea6U \u0110U\u00d4I \u0110\u1eb6C BI\u1ec6T MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n L\u00d4 3 S\u1ed0 MI\u1ec0N NAM CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/pre>\n<\/div>\n
\u00a0CH\u1ed0T S\u1ed0 MI\u1ec0N TRUNG<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
X\u1ec9u Ch\u1ee7 MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n GI\u1ea2I \u0110\u1eb6C BI\u1ec6T MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n GI\u1ea2I 8 MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n BAO L\u00d4 MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n C\u1eb7p X\u1ec9u Ch\u1ee7 MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n SONG TH\u1ee6 L\u00d4 MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n \u0110\u1ea6U \u0110U\u00d4I GI\u1ea2I 8 MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n \u0110\u1ea6U \u0110U\u00d4I \u0110\u1eb6C BI\u1ec6T MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a>\r\n\r\n L\u00d4 3 S\u1ed0 MI\u1ec0N TRUNG CHU\u1ea8N H\u00d4M NAY<\/strong><\/a><\/pre>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"